You all know that I want to get a sub-30 minute 5k this year. And I’ve planned in my head that I’d like to get my half marathon time down to 2:15 next year. But I hadn’t spent too much time thinking about my goal for the 10k I’m running in September.

Using the always helpful McMillan calculator, I can make these predictions based on this year’s races:

Richland Creek 5 Miler predicts 1:04:33 (10:23 pace).
Predators 5k predicts 1:05:15 (10:30 pace).
Country Music Half Marathon predicts 1:06:16 (10:40 pace).
Music City July 4th 5k predicts 1:07:40 (10:53 pace).
Barrel Fest 5 Miler (semi-injured) predicts 1:09:40 (11:13 pace).

By the time the 10k rolls around, I’ll have another 5k (hopefully a PR!) and two more months of training under my belt. I feel like I’m all over the board for this distance. So how do I determine my goal?

First of all, my current 10k race PR is 1:14:37, so unless something tragic happens, I’m sure to get a PR. So getting a PR will be my C goal.

My fastest 10 km I have run so far was during the half marathon; my estimated time was 1:07:57. I would like to think I can run 6.2 miles faster than I can in the middle of a half marathon, so beating my current best 10 km time will be my B goal.

For my A goal…well, I came across this chart of average race times last week. It lists 1:04:47 (or a 10:26 pace) as the average time for women. So, my A goal is to be average!

Source: Runner’s World with data from Running USA.

To sum up:
A Goal: 1:04:47 or better.
B Goal: 1:07:56 or better.
C Goal: 1:14:36 or better.

FYI, if I do run a sub-30 min 5k next month, McMillan predicts a 1:02:16 10k!

How do you determine your race goals?